Project recruitment deviates

Opal-object inputs reconstruct the full historical recruitment vector, including fixed and mapped years, for each draw. Set first_yr and last_yr to choose the period used to estimate future variability. Constant histories produce constant projections. Legacy list inputs retain their original path.

Usage

project_rec_devs(
  data,
  obj = NULL,
  mcmc = NULL,
  first_yr = NULL,
  last_yr = NULL,
  n_proj = 5,
  n_iter = NULL,
  max.p = 5,
  max.d = 5,
  max.q = 5,
  arima = TRUE,
  uncertainty = NULL
)

Arguments

data: An Opal object or model data list.
obj: For legacy data-list calls, the RTMB objective. Omit for an Opal object.
mcmc: Legacy data-list calls only: a SparseNUTS fit. Opal objects use their stored posterior when uncertainty = "mcmc".
first_yr: the first year sampled. Defaults to the first model year.
last_yr: Last historical year used to estimate future variability. Defaults to the final model year.
n_proj: Number of future model years.
n_iter: Number of trajectories. Defaults to one for fitted values, or all retained draws for MCMC. MCMC uses the first n_iter draws in the same order as project_dynamics().
max.p: Maximum value of p, or the maximum value of p (the AR order) to consider.
max.d: Maximum differencing order considered by forecast::auto.arima().
max.q: Maximum moving-average order considered by forecast::auto.arima().
arima: If TRUE, select an ARIMA model and bootstrap future innovations. If FALSE, fit an autoregressive model with stats::ar() and simulate with stats::arima.sim().
uncertainty: For Opal objects, choose fit or mcmc.

Value

a list of projected recruitment deviates and ARIMA specifications.

Usage

Arguments

Value

See also